Het Europees wapenembargo voor Syrië staat onder druk.
Aanstaande donderdag zal de Britse minister van Buitenlandse Zaken
Hague zijn Europese collega's proberen te overtuigen van de
noodzaak van een de restrictie op het leveren van militaire
goederen. Londen wil zo snel mogelijk radar en
afluistertechnologie, nachtzichtapparatuur, kogelwerende vesten en
helmen leveren aan Syrische oppositiegroepen. Dit is een zeer
onverstandige stap die alleen maar zal leiden tot verdere
escalatie en verlenging van de burgeroorlog.
Reeds in november 2012 pleitte het Verenigd Koninkrijk, samen
met Frankrijk, voor opheffing van het embargo. Duitsland vetode
dit voornemen, maar ook een aantal kleinere EU-landen waren het
niet met dit voornemen eens. Daarop werd besloten het embargo in
te stellen voor slechts drie maanden, zodat een nieuwe overweging
nieuwe kansen voor wapenleveranties kon geven. Het Verenigd
Koninkrijk hoopt dit keer wel gesteund te worden door Duitsland.
Vermoed wordt dat Londen de Turkse grensovergangen wil
gebruiken voor de leveringen. Het wordt daar druk. Het is een
publiek geheim dat wapens uit Qatar en Saoedi-Arabië over die
grenzen naar Syrië gaan. En in juni meldde de New York Times dat
ook de CIA de grensposten gebruikt voor geheime wapenleveringen.
Wie precies de rebellen zijn die worden bewapend, en wat ze willen
met Syrië, is volstrekt onduidelijk. Er worden wapens geleverd
tegen Assad, maar wat gebeurt er met die wapens als Assad van het
toneel verdwijnt?
Hoewel de Russische vicepremier Dimitri Rogozin oktober 2012 op
de Russische TV stelde dat “het een slechte oplossing is om
vuur met benzine te doven,” is Rusland nog steeds de
grootste wapenleverancier aan Syrië. De Russische wapens worden
vermoedelijk via de Middellandse Zee geleverd. Moskou beweert dat
het alleen gaat om leveranties van al eerder afgesloten
contracten.
De Britse premier Cameron zei afgelopen december in verband met
Syrië: “In plaats van te kijken wat niet kunnen doen, moeten we
kijken wat wel kunnen doen.” Maar nog meer wapens naar een toch al
explosieve regio is wel het slechtste wat Europa kan doen. In
plaats van het leveren van wapens en militaire goederen kan de EU
zich beter inzetten op een andere diplomatie, zoals het opvoeren
van de druk op Rusland om alle wapenleveringen, nieuwe én oude –
te stoppen. Ook moet van Qatar en Saoedi Arabië geëist worden dat ze stoppen met het leveren van wapens. Daarbij
moeten landen als Turkije hun grenzen voor wapenleveranties sluiten. Met het stoppen van de wapentoevoer is het conflict niet
opgelost. Door er mee door te gaan wordt het conflict alleen maar
dieper, groter en langer.
Geschreven voor Sargasso
Onderzoek ondersteund door Fonds Vredesprojecten
woensdag 30 januari 2013
maandag 14 januari 2013
Mijn losse-Mali-wapens-flodders en signaleringen her-en-der
On this blog information is collected about arms in Mali and connected issues such as special forces exercise and operation Flintlock. Cartoons are used as illustrations. Broekstukken is not agreeing with all text and pictures, but reproducing them as a service to readers.
The French Air Force operates four air tankers out of N'djamena in Chad, and one tanker based in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, a second defense official said. The service flies an average of one flight a day of five to 10 hours per sortie to support the 12 fighters deployed: six Mirage 2000D, four Rafales and two Mirage F1 CRs.
A tanker in the air day and night would allow round-the-clock strikes, raising the tempo and denying the rebels time to rest under cover of darkness.
The average age of the French C135 FR air tanker fleet is 48 years, and it is assigned to the strategic deterrence fleet.
The French Army now has three Tiger attack helicopters in Mali, part of a total mixed helicopter force of 12. The maximumnumber of Tigers in Afghanistan was five helicopters.
As part of the ISR effort, the French Air Force is flying two Harfang medium-altitude, long-endurance UAVs, out of its total four units.
The French Navy is flying four to six Atlantique 2 aircraft for ISR and targeting missions, and contributes commandoes to the special operations forces deployed on the ground.
In coalition efforts, a valuable aid would be access to the U.S. secure internet protocol router network, dubbed SIPRnet, a French officer said. That would allow direct communications between, say, a French Navy and U.S. Navy ship.
The British, meanwhile, have been 'exemplary' in cooperation and political support, the French government official said. Britain has shown it counts, the source said.
In the wake of the deadly attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, there has been a large buildup of air assets in the region, a Pentagon official said.
The U.S. contribution to ISR over Mali includes manned and unmanned aircraft, including the U2 spy plane, Global Hawk UAV and EP-3 Aries, the U.S. official said.
The U.S. said Jan. 22 it would send three C-17s to help the French effort.
Pierre Tran, Carter: U.S. Aiding France in Mali Conflict, Defense News Jan. 28, 2013
Fear of military reprisal sends people fleeing Okene
An Islamist group called Ansarul has claimed responsibility for the deadly attack on some Mali-bound military troops last Saturday along Lokoja-Okene road in Kogi State. The group owned up to the crime yesterday in a local Desert Herald, which often publishes their claims.
Matthew Onah in Lokoja, Attack on Military Troops: Ansarul Claims Responsibility, 21 januari 2013
"France has drawn on a series of ad hoc arrangements with America and European allies, rather than the European Air Transport Command at Eindhoven, the Netherlands, Grand [director of think tank Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique] said."
"The Mali campaign, dubbed operation Serval, also shows the need for prepositioned bases in Africa, de Durand [directorof security studies at think tank Institut Français des Relations Internationales] said. They cost a few hundreds of millions of dollars and require a small number of troops, but they are cheaper and faster than huge fleets of C-17 and A400M transports, or securing an airport and starting from scratch.
"Countries including Britain, Belgium, Canada and Denmark have pledged transport planes to help France. Germany is not helping France directly but said it would send two C-160s to airlift African troops from a planned 3,000 strong military mission to support the Malian government."
"'They are a real force multiplier,' Viellard [director at consultancy Cie Européene Intelligence Stratégique] said. 'They allow planners to decide the where, how, what volume of intervention.' Over the Sahara, France operates an optical military satellite system for imagery, Air Force jets with reconnaissance pods and the French Navy's Atlantique 2 (ATL-2), a twinengine aircraft designed for maritime patrol but used as an ISR system. Harfang medium-altitude, longendurance UAV systems are also to be deployed soon, Viellard said."
Pierre Tran, 'Early Lessons From France's Mali Action Emerge', Defense News 21 januari 2013.
'
21 januari 2013
The Arab Spring's dangerous side; Disarray, porous borders and spread of arms have been a boon to militants
ABSTRACT: The mayhem in the vast desert region has many causes, but it is also a sobering reminder that the euphoric toppling of dictators in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt has come at a price.
Robert F. Worth, IHT 21-01-13
20 januari 2013
It is undoubtedly the case that the jihadist groups in the Sahel are well funded. The rewards from kidnapping alone have reportedly brought AQIM £63m or £94m over the past decade. The US Treasury has tracked the rise of ransom payments for hostages, some by Western governments, from an average of £2.8m to £3.4m between 2010 and 2011. Mokhtar Belmokhtar, leader of the Signed-in-Blood battalion, believed to be behind the In Amenas attack, has made a fortune from smuggling cigarettes, drugs and cars. Some of that money had been spent on arms including, it is believed, surface-to-air and long-range ground missiles from Libya. Yet, so far, none of these has been used in Mali.
Lt-Col Frederick, the head of French forces in Markala, who wishes to be known only by his first name, said, "So far we have not faced any missiles, or any kind of artillery. They are using AKs [Kalashnikovs] and RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades]." Nor has there been any significant use of the improvised explosive devices that brought the Taliban so much lethal success in Afghanistan. The last point is particularly surprising as AQIM's leader, Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud, is an accomplished bomb-maker.
The French and Malian forces may face missiles and roadside bombs as they go further north towards Timbuktu. But the pattern seems to be that, after an initial burst of resistance, the rebels are melting away, some across the border into Niger and Mauritania.
Kim Sengupta, Brian Brady, 'West turns sights on threat in the desert; EU and US to co-operate with local governments to destroy militant 'corridor of terror', Independent, 20 januari 2013
19 januari 2013
Peter Bouckaert could hardly believe his eyes. As Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi lay dying in late 2011, rebel militias were speedily stripping the carcass of his regime of the vast arsenal of weapons that had ensured his 42-year reign.
"I've worked around the world and covered conflicts for 15 years," Bouckaert, veteran emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, told The Star last fall. "I've never seen weapons proliferation like Libya. The militias got their hands on weapons on a scale many times greater than other conflicts."
The Toronto Star, January 19, 2013: Gadhafi arsenal stoking unrest
18 januari 2013
It took just three days for the French Army to realize that in Mali it was up against Islamist fighters better experienced and better equipped than anticipated.
"What struck us a great deal is the modernity of their equipment, their training and their ability to use it," the Elysee acknowledged Sunday [13 January]. So where do these arms come from? Several experts believe that the groups active in Mali and the Sahel have been largely supplied in Libya over the past two years.
"A considerable quantity of arms was stolen during the revolution. Light weapons, such as Kalashnikovs, but also heavy machine guns, rocket launchers and SAM type ground-to-air missiles. Stocks of grenades and explosives, including Samtex, have also disappeared," explains William Lawrence, director of North Africa Region with the ICG [International Crisis Group], an NGO specialized in conflict resolution.
Liberation website on 17 January says Malian rebels supplied with weapons in Libya, January 18, 2013, summary BBC Worldwide Monitoring
The Islamists are well armed, with AK-47s, rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine guns mounted on vehicles, as well as some armored personnel carriers seized from the Malian military.
Adam Nossiter en Eric Schmitt,' Malian rebels are everywhere but nowhere', The International Herald Tribune, 17 januari, 2013
Tunisia seizes big arms cache in large-scale security raid
Tunisian authorities have seized a big arms cache in two depots in the southern town of Medenine and arrested two people, a local journalist told Al-Jazeera on 17 January. The arms included Kalashnikov rifles, explosives, rocket-propelled grenades, bullet-proof vests, anti-personnel mines and anti-vehicle mines, Khalifa El Hadad said in a phone interview. "A very big security force was involved in seizing the big quantity of arms," he said. While declining to make any speculation about who could be behind the arms cache, he highlighted Medenine's proximity to the Tunisian border with Libya. "Medenine is not far from the unstable security condition and proliferation of weapons in Libya, and the conflict in Mali also has an impact on the whole region. "All those factors could provide a backdrop to the big arms cache uncovered in Medenine," he explained. "The arms came from Libya, according to confirmed information," El Hadad maintained, saying the Tunisian town could be a transit point for smuggled arms bound for trouble spots in the wider region. "Despite the large-scale security operation in Medenine," he said, "the coverage of Tunisian national television of the event was a mere 20 seconds, which provoked a feeling of indignation in the town." Source: Al-Jazeera TV, Doha, in Arabic 2130 gmt 17 Jan 13 provided by BBC Monitoring Middle East - January 18, 2013
In 2005, PSI was replaced by the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), a partnership of State, Defense and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) meant to focus on improving individual country and regional capabilities in northwest Africa.
According to a Government Accountability Office study, Mali got roughly $37 million in TSCTP funds from 2005 through 2008. More than half went to Defense projects. But GAO reported that there were bureaucratic differences over the programs and funding problems. "USAID received funds for its TSCTP activities in Mali in 2005 and 2007, but not in 2006," for example. "Because it received no funds for 2006, the mission suspended a peace-building program in northern Mali," the area facing the greatest threat.
In 2006, Mali was included in the Millennium Challenge, a U.S. effort to provide economic support to countries "committed to good governance, economic freedom, and investing in their citizens." A $461 million compact provided money for agriculture and expanding Mali's access to markets and trade. It was to end on Sept. 17, 2012, but it ended in March after a military coup overthrew the civilian government. One defense element under TSCTP was Operation Flintlock, a joint exercise to train the Malian army and armed forces of Algeria, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal and Tunisia. It would later add troops from Burkina Faso, Morocco and Nigeria. Operation Flintlock 2005 was called the biggest exercise in Africa since World War II, involving 1,000 U.S. personnel and forces from seven countries in the region. The exercise scenario, according to a BBC story, was "a terrorist group being chased across national borders from Mauritania in the west, through to Mali, Niger and finally Chad."
A partial breakdown of spending under TSCTP showed that in 2006 and 2007, about $5 million was intended for youth programs in the north such as schools and to "expand the ability of citizens to participate in local government," said a State Department document.
Operation Flintlock exercises were held in Mali in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, Mali got equipment worth $5 million, including 37 "new Land Cruiser pickup trucks, along with powerful communications equipment" for the desert, according to a U.S. statement. Mali also received $1 million in U.S. mine-detector equipment.
The 2009 exercise, held near Bamako, the capital, marked the first U.S. Special Operations Forces use of the CV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft. The 2010 exercise involved some 1,200 people, and U.S. Special Forces troops showed a Malian special forces team how to handle an ambush in the Sahara, a Defense news release said. The U.S. Africa Command had planned to hold a Flintlock 2012 exercise in Mali, but it was canceled because of problems in the north. Then the coup in March ended U.S. military assistance.
Even coup leader Capt. Amadou Sanogo represents something of a U.S. failure. He had participated in the Pentagon's International Military Education and Training programs, with basic training at Fort Benning, Ga.; English-language training at Lackland Air Force Base, Tex.; an intelligence course at Fort Huachuca, Ariz.; and study at Quantico, Va., with the Marine Corps.
Last November, Army Lt. Gen. John F. Mulholland Jr., deputy commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, told a Defense Strategies Institute conference in Alexandria that "we are not going to kill our way to victory" using Navy SEAL raids and drone strikes alone. What's needed, he said, are "preemptive efforts before the fight starts . . . done with [host country] partners."
Wasn't that our Mali strategy?
Walter Pincus, 'Why did U.S. counterterror effort in Mali fail?', The Washington Post, January 17, 2013
16 januari 2013
Nederland oefent bij buren Mali; Elitetroepen doen mee aan militaire training Flintlock
De Telegraaf 17 januari 2013
In Uruzgan, de Afghaanse provincie waar Nederland jaren actief was, vochten Nederlandse commando's actief mee in de strijd tegen de Taliban en maakten lange verkenningstochten door het onherbergzame Afghaanse terrein. In West-Afrika weten zij zich geconfronteerd met minstens even uitdagende omstandigheden.
De SP heeft het kabinet om opheldering gevraagd over de inzet van Nederlandse militairen in de regio. We mogen niet zomaar een oorlog ingerommeld worden , waarschuwt SP-Kamerlid Van Dijk. De socialisten trokken al eerder aan de bel over Flintlock omdat de partij vreesde dat de Nederlanders in het geheim kunnen worden ingezet voor de Amerikaanse oorlog tegen het terrorisme. Maar volgens Defensie is dat onzin.
Transport Inzet in Mali van elite-eenheden is absoluut niet aan de orde, bezweert een woordvoerder. De Nederlandse betrokkenheid blijft vooralsnog beperkt tot de levering van transporttoestellen. Aan transportcapaciteit hebben de Fransen een grote behoefte. Zij willen meer militairen en materieel richting de regio overbrengen.
Nederlanders trainen in gevaarlijk gebied rond Mali
AD 17 januari 2013
DEN HAAG Terwijl in Mali een bloedige strijd woedt, gaan Nederlandse militairen trainen in de grensstreek van buurland Mauritanië. Voor dat gebied geldt een negatief reisadvies vanwege ontvoeringen van buitenlanders, gevechten en terroristische aanslagen.
De 55 Nederlandse commando's en mariniers nemen vanaf medio februari deel aan de internationale oefening Flintlock. Die is onderdeel van een groot Amerikaans antiterreurprogramma in Afrika. Militairen van acht westerse landen trainen speciale eenheden uit acht Afrikaanse landen voor hun strijd tegen al-Qaeda. Ze leren schieten, patrouilleren, navigeren, verkennen en het inrichten van controleposten. Nederland doet voor de zesde keer mee.
Vorig jaar werd de oefening in Noord-Mali afgelast vanwege de burgeroorlog. Defensie zegt dat deelname dit jaar niet ter discussie stond vanwege de huidige situatie in Mali. ,,De MIVD kijkt voortdurend naar de veiligheid en we houden de ontwikkelingen in Mali in de gaten,'' aldus een zegsman.
De Nederlandse militairen zijn inmiddels naar Afrika vertrokken. Ze trainen eerst collega's in Senegal en Burkina Faso. Daarna gaan de meesten naar de eindoefening in Mauritanië, in het risicovolle zuidoosten en midden van het land. ,,Er is geen sprake van dat het er niet veilig genoeg zou zijn. We trainen op beveiligde militaire kazernes en oefenlocaties.''
Can this rebellion be stopped by air attacks? Bombing arms dumps and concentrations of rebels may hinder their advance but AQIM can only be quelled by troops on the ground who have the support of locals. At present the Malian Army is weak and lacks morale. That means the French will probably have to provide the core of a force that includes soldiers from other West African countries. They may get help from Tuareg nationalists but they remain untrusted. Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, has said the action in would be over "in a matter of weeks". These are words he may regret.
Today Mali, tomorrow Nigeria for al-Qaeda,
15 januari 2013
"Fowler (voormalig gijzelaar van Al Qaeda in de Sahara (AQIM) en huidig gezant voor Niger) beschrijft in zijn boek dat zijn gijzelnemers het eentonige woestijnlandschap van Noord- Mali op hun duimpje kenden. Ze reden dagenlang door valleien van vrijwel identieke zandduinen met de zon als enige navigatie. Hoewel er geen tankstations waren, zaten ze nooit zonder brandstof. Soms stopten ze ineens bij een boom waar vaten met diesel begraven lagen. Of ze begroeven een tas met laarzen en markeerden de plek met GPS zodat ze hem terug konden vinden. Ze zaten nooit zonder voedsel, terwijl ze nooit bij een winkel of markt stopten, wat aantoont hoe omvangrijk hun netwerk met materieel en proviand is."
Wat met olie kan is ook mogelijk met wapens en munitie.
Pauline Bax, NRC Handelsblad, 15 januari 2013, 'Al-Qaeda wil chaos in heel N-Afrika'; Interview Canadese diplomaat Robert Fowler zat 130 dagen gevangen bij Al-Qaeda in Mali
Ottawa is also indirectly helping Mali through Exercise Flintlock, an annual U.S.-run military training exercise for West Africa.
STEVEN CHASE and CAMPBELL CLARK, Canada joins mission to Mali; Vowing commitment will be limited, Ottawa sends military aircraft to transport French combat forces, The Globe and Mail (Canada), 14 januari 2013
14 januari 2013
Commando_s_en_mariniers_naar_oefening_in_Afrika
Special forces oefening/operatie in West-Afrika wederom met Nederlandse deelname.
Commando’s en mariniers naar oefening in Afrika | Ministerie van Defensie 55 militairen van het Korps Commandotroepen en het Korps Mariniers vliegen deze maand naar Afrika voor de Amerikaanse oefening Flintlock 2013. 
Zie ook:
2011/02/nederlanders-in-war-on-terrorin-afrika.html
2011/02/dutch-and-war-on-terror-in-africa.html
2011/04/flintlock-kamervragen.html
14 januari 2013
Islamist rebels 'outmanoeuvred' Algeria in Malian crisis, says paper (Zine Cherfaoui, 'Casting error?' in El Watan website on 14 January tranlation: BBC Worldwide Monitoring January 14, 2013)
Algeria was naive to think that it could persuade Ag Ghali, the head of the Ansar Eddine Islamist group, whose acolytes now control several towns in the Azawad, to renounce violence and negotiate wisely with Bamako a political settlement to the Malian crisis. Yet, such an error of judgement is difficult to explain. Algeria is a country that has paid a heavy price in the struggle against terrorism. Everybody now knows for quite a long time that one cannot really trust an armed Islamist group. The jihadists have tried hard to get rid of their natural traits but the latter quickly came back. The proof: while his emissaries to Ouagadougou were asking for more time in order, they said, to better prepare for a dialogue with Bamako, the head of the Ansar Eddine movement was on the verge of issuing orders to his troops to melt in the ranks of the Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb [AQMI] legion and of the movement for unity and jihad in West Africa [Mujao] to rush in a beeline movement towards the locality of Konna.
Obviously one can always try to talk about the reasons that convinced Iyad Ag Ghali, this mysterious personage that has become a master in the art of manipulation and stabbing in the back, to break his promise made to Algiers just 15 days ago that he will spare no effort to extinguish the Malian fire for good, and to take up arms again against Bamako. But the facts are here: despite Algiers warnings, Ansar Eddine joined ranks again with the AQMI and the Mujao to "punish" Bamako, which is guilty, according to them, of failing to get seriously involved in a quest for a solution to the crisis. The current situation shows, at any rate, that the Ansar Eddine leaders have misled their Algerian contacts and that they have their own agenda.
But then has Algeria proved to be right in the end to promote dialogue in this conflict that broke out at its borders? Yes, obviously. It would be a serious mistake to think for one moment that the Malian crisis will be settled solely by arms. However, there seems to have been a casting error in the choice of certain protagonists of the crisis. Was it indeed a good idea to try at any cost, for some reason that still eludes all, to place Ansar Eddine at the forefront and to marginalise the others actors of the Azawad who are, yet, much more prone to engage in politics?
France says airstrikes in Mali stalled rebel push
The International Herald Tribune, 14 januari 2013, Steven Erlanger and Scott Sayare
(...) The spokesman, Lt. Col. Diarran Kone, said that some civilians and Malian soldiers had died in the fighting in recent days. ''Zero deaths is not possible,'' he said. He said the rebels, whom he called ''terrorists,'' had suffered heavy casualties, and French officials said one French pilot had died from small-arms fire.
STEVEN CHASE, GEOFFREY YORK and COLIN FREEZE, Ottawa to train forces in Niger; France sends combat troops to Mali to counter the growing power of Islamist fighters in the West African country
The Globe and Mail (Canada), 12 januari 2013
The French Air Force operates four air tankers out of N'djamena in Chad, and one tanker based in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, a second defense official said. The service flies an average of one flight a day of five to 10 hours per sortie to support the 12 fighters deployed: six Mirage 2000D, four Rafales and two Mirage F1 CRs.
A tanker in the air day and night would allow round-the-clock strikes, raising the tempo and denying the rebels time to rest under cover of darkness.
The average age of the French C135 FR air tanker fleet is 48 years, and it is assigned to the strategic deterrence fleet.
The French Army now has three Tiger attack helicopters in Mali, part of a total mixed helicopter force of 12. The maximumnumber of Tigers in Afghanistan was five helicopters.
As part of the ISR effort, the French Air Force is flying two Harfang medium-altitude, long-endurance UAVs, out of its total four units.
The French Navy is flying four to six Atlantique 2 aircraft for ISR and targeting missions, and contributes commandoes to the special operations forces deployed on the ground.
In coalition efforts, a valuable aid would be access to the U.S. secure internet protocol router network, dubbed SIPRnet, a French officer said. That would allow direct communications between, say, a French Navy and U.S. Navy ship.
The British, meanwhile, have been 'exemplary' in cooperation and political support, the French government official said. Britain has shown it counts, the source said.
In the wake of the deadly attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, there has been a large buildup of air assets in the region, a Pentagon official said.
The U.S. contribution to ISR over Mali includes manned and unmanned aircraft, including the U2 spy plane, Global Hawk UAV and EP-3 Aries, the U.S. official said.
The U.S. said Jan. 22 it would send three C-17s to help the French effort.
Pierre Tran, Carter: U.S. Aiding France in Mali Conflict, Defense News Jan. 28, 2013
Fear of military reprisal sends people fleeing Okene
An Islamist group called Ansarul has claimed responsibility for the deadly attack on some Mali-bound military troops last Saturday along Lokoja-Okene road in Kogi State. The group owned up to the crime yesterday in a local Desert Herald, which often publishes their claims.
Matthew Onah in Lokoja, Attack on Military Troops: Ansarul Claims Responsibility, 21 januari 2013
"The Mali campaign, dubbed operation Serval, also shows the need for prepositioned bases in Africa, de Durand [directorof security studies at think tank Institut Français des Relations Internationales] said. They cost a few hundreds of millions of dollars and require a small number of troops, but they are cheaper and faster than huge fleets of C-17 and A400M transports, or securing an airport and starting from scratch.
"Countries including Britain, Belgium, Canada and Denmark have pledged transport planes to help France. Germany is not helping France directly but said it would send two C-160s to airlift African troops from a planned 3,000 strong military mission to support the Malian government."
"'They are a real force multiplier,' Viellard [director at consultancy Cie Européene Intelligence Stratégique] said. 'They allow planners to decide the where, how, what volume of intervention.' Over the Sahara, France operates an optical military satellite system for imagery, Air Force jets with reconnaissance pods and the French Navy's Atlantique 2 (ATL-2), a twinengine aircraft designed for maritime patrol but used as an ISR system. Harfang medium-altitude, longendurance UAV systems are also to be deployed soon, Viellard said."
Pierre Tran, 'Early Lessons From France's Mali Action Emerge', Defense News 21 januari 2013.
21 januari 2013
The Arab Spring's dangerous side; Disarray, porous borders and spread of arms have been a boon to militants
ABSTRACT: The mayhem in the vast desert region has many causes, but it is also a sobering reminder that the euphoric toppling of dictators in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt has come at a price.
Robert F. Worth, IHT 21-01-13
It is undoubtedly the case that the jihadist groups in the Sahel are well funded. The rewards from kidnapping alone have reportedly brought AQIM £63m or £94m over the past decade. The US Treasury has tracked the rise of ransom payments for hostages, some by Western governments, from an average of £2.8m to £3.4m between 2010 and 2011. Mokhtar Belmokhtar, leader of the Signed-in-Blood battalion, believed to be behind the In Amenas attack, has made a fortune from smuggling cigarettes, drugs and cars. Some of that money had been spent on arms including, it is believed, surface-to-air and long-range ground missiles from Libya. Yet, so far, none of these has been used in Mali.
Lt-Col Frederick, the head of French forces in Markala, who wishes to be known only by his first name, said, "So far we have not faced any missiles, or any kind of artillery. They are using AKs [Kalashnikovs] and RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades]." Nor has there been any significant use of the improvised explosive devices that brought the Taliban so much lethal success in Afghanistan. The last point is particularly surprising as AQIM's leader, Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud, is an accomplished bomb-maker.
The French and Malian forces may face missiles and roadside bombs as they go further north towards Timbuktu. But the pattern seems to be that, after an initial burst of resistance, the rebels are melting away, some across the border into Niger and Mauritania.
Kim Sengupta, Brian Brady, 'West turns sights on threat in the desert; EU and US to co-operate with local governments to destroy militant 'corridor of terror', Independent, 20 januari 2013
19 januari 2013
Peter Bouckaert could hardly believe his eyes. As Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi lay dying in late 2011, rebel militias were speedily stripping the carcass of his regime of the vast arsenal of weapons that had ensured his 42-year reign.
"I've worked around the world and covered conflicts for 15 years," Bouckaert, veteran emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, told The Star last fall. "I've never seen weapons proliferation like Libya. The militias got their hands on weapons on a scale many times greater than other conflicts."
The Toronto Star, January 19, 2013: Gadhafi arsenal stoking unrest
It took just three days for the French Army to realize that in Mali it was up against Islamist fighters better experienced and better equipped than anticipated.
"What struck us a great deal is the modernity of their equipment, their training and their ability to use it," the Elysee acknowledged Sunday [13 January]. So where do these arms come from? Several experts believe that the groups active in Mali and the Sahel have been largely supplied in Libya over the past two years.
"A considerable quantity of arms was stolen during the revolution. Light weapons, such as Kalashnikovs, but also heavy machine guns, rocket launchers and SAM type ground-to-air missiles. Stocks of grenades and explosives, including Samtex, have also disappeared," explains William Lawrence, director of North Africa Region with the ICG [International Crisis Group], an NGO specialized in conflict resolution.
Liberation website on 17 January says Malian rebels supplied with weapons in Libya, January 18, 2013, summary BBC Worldwide Monitoring
The Islamists are well armed, with AK-47s, rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine guns mounted on vehicles, as well as some armored personnel carriers seized from the Malian military.
Adam Nossiter en Eric Schmitt,' Malian rebels are everywhere but nowhere', The International Herald Tribune, 17 januari, 2013
Tunisia seizes big arms cache in large-scale security raid
Tunisian authorities have seized a big arms cache in two depots in the southern town of Medenine and arrested two people, a local journalist told Al-Jazeera on 17 January. The arms included Kalashnikov rifles, explosives, rocket-propelled grenades, bullet-proof vests, anti-personnel mines and anti-vehicle mines, Khalifa El Hadad said in a phone interview. "A very big security force was involved in seizing the big quantity of arms," he said. While declining to make any speculation about who could be behind the arms cache, he highlighted Medenine's proximity to the Tunisian border with Libya. "Medenine is not far from the unstable security condition and proliferation of weapons in Libya, and the conflict in Mali also has an impact on the whole region. "All those factors could provide a backdrop to the big arms cache uncovered in Medenine," he explained. "The arms came from Libya, according to confirmed information," El Hadad maintained, saying the Tunisian town could be a transit point for smuggled arms bound for trouble spots in the wider region. "Despite the large-scale security operation in Medenine," he said, "the coverage of Tunisian national television of the event was a mere 20 seconds, which provoked a feeling of indignation in the town." Source: Al-Jazeera TV, Doha, in Arabic 2130 gmt 17 Jan 13 provided by BBC Monitoring Middle East - January 18, 2013
In 2005, PSI was replaced by the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), a partnership of State, Defense and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) meant to focus on improving individual country and regional capabilities in northwest Africa.
According to a Government Accountability Office study, Mali got roughly $37 million in TSCTP funds from 2005 through 2008. More than half went to Defense projects. But GAO reported that there were bureaucratic differences over the programs and funding problems. "USAID received funds for its TSCTP activities in Mali in 2005 and 2007, but not in 2006," for example. "Because it received no funds for 2006, the mission suspended a peace-building program in northern Mali," the area facing the greatest threat.
In 2006, Mali was included in the Millennium Challenge, a U.S. effort to provide economic support to countries "committed to good governance, economic freedom, and investing in their citizens." A $461 million compact provided money for agriculture and expanding Mali's access to markets and trade. It was to end on Sept. 17, 2012, but it ended in March after a military coup overthrew the civilian government. One defense element under TSCTP was Operation Flintlock, a joint exercise to train the Malian army and armed forces of Algeria, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal and Tunisia. It would later add troops from Burkina Faso, Morocco and Nigeria. Operation Flintlock 2005 was called the biggest exercise in Africa since World War II, involving 1,000 U.S. personnel and forces from seven countries in the region. The exercise scenario, according to a BBC story, was "a terrorist group being chased across national borders from Mauritania in the west, through to Mali, Niger and finally Chad."
A partial breakdown of spending under TSCTP showed that in 2006 and 2007, about $5 million was intended for youth programs in the north such as schools and to "expand the ability of citizens to participate in local government," said a State Department document.
Operation Flintlock exercises were held in Mali in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, Mali got equipment worth $5 million, including 37 "new Land Cruiser pickup trucks, along with powerful communications equipment" for the desert, according to a U.S. statement. Mali also received $1 million in U.S. mine-detector equipment.
The 2009 exercise, held near Bamako, the capital, marked the first U.S. Special Operations Forces use of the CV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft. The 2010 exercise involved some 1,200 people, and U.S. Special Forces troops showed a Malian special forces team how to handle an ambush in the Sahara, a Defense news release said. The U.S. Africa Command had planned to hold a Flintlock 2012 exercise in Mali, but it was canceled because of problems in the north. Then the coup in March ended U.S. military assistance.
Even coup leader Capt. Amadou Sanogo represents something of a U.S. failure. He had participated in the Pentagon's International Military Education and Training programs, with basic training at Fort Benning, Ga.; English-language training at Lackland Air Force Base, Tex.; an intelligence course at Fort Huachuca, Ariz.; and study at Quantico, Va., with the Marine Corps.
Last November, Army Lt. Gen. John F. Mulholland Jr., deputy commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, told a Defense Strategies Institute conference in Alexandria that "we are not going to kill our way to victory" using Navy SEAL raids and drone strikes alone. What's needed, he said, are "preemptive efforts before the fight starts . . . done with [host country] partners."
Wasn't that our Mali strategy?
Walter Pincus, 'Why did U.S. counterterror effort in Mali fail?', The Washington Post, January 17, 2013
16 januari 2013
Nederland oefent bij buren Mali; Elitetroepen doen mee aan militaire training Flintlock
De Telegraaf 17 januari 2013
In Uruzgan, de Afghaanse provincie waar Nederland jaren actief was, vochten Nederlandse commando's actief mee in de strijd tegen de Taliban en maakten lange verkenningstochten door het onherbergzame Afghaanse terrein. In West-Afrika weten zij zich geconfronteerd met minstens even uitdagende omstandigheden.
De SP heeft het kabinet om opheldering gevraagd over de inzet van Nederlandse militairen in de regio. We mogen niet zomaar een oorlog ingerommeld worden , waarschuwt SP-Kamerlid Van Dijk. De socialisten trokken al eerder aan de bel over Flintlock omdat de partij vreesde dat de Nederlanders in het geheim kunnen worden ingezet voor de Amerikaanse oorlog tegen het terrorisme. Maar volgens Defensie is dat onzin.
Transport Inzet in Mali van elite-eenheden is absoluut niet aan de orde, bezweert een woordvoerder. De Nederlandse betrokkenheid blijft vooralsnog beperkt tot de levering van transporttoestellen. Aan transportcapaciteit hebben de Fransen een grote behoefte. Zij willen meer militairen en materieel richting de regio overbrengen.
Nederlanders trainen in gevaarlijk gebied rond Mali
AD 17 januari 2013
DEN HAAG Terwijl in Mali een bloedige strijd woedt, gaan Nederlandse militairen trainen in de grensstreek van buurland Mauritanië. Voor dat gebied geldt een negatief reisadvies vanwege ontvoeringen van buitenlanders, gevechten en terroristische aanslagen.
De 55 Nederlandse commando's en mariniers nemen vanaf medio februari deel aan de internationale oefening Flintlock. Die is onderdeel van een groot Amerikaans antiterreurprogramma in Afrika. Militairen van acht westerse landen trainen speciale eenheden uit acht Afrikaanse landen voor hun strijd tegen al-Qaeda. Ze leren schieten, patrouilleren, navigeren, verkennen en het inrichten van controleposten. Nederland doet voor de zesde keer mee.
Vorig jaar werd de oefening in Noord-Mali afgelast vanwege de burgeroorlog. Defensie zegt dat deelname dit jaar niet ter discussie stond vanwege de huidige situatie in Mali. ,,De MIVD kijkt voortdurend naar de veiligheid en we houden de ontwikkelingen in Mali in de gaten,'' aldus een zegsman.
De Nederlandse militairen zijn inmiddels naar Afrika vertrokken. Ze trainen eerst collega's in Senegal en Burkina Faso. Daarna gaan de meesten naar de eindoefening in Mauritanië, in het risicovolle zuidoosten en midden van het land. ,,Er is geen sprake van dat het er niet veilig genoeg zou zijn. We trainen op beveiligde militaire kazernes en oefenlocaties.''
Can this rebellion be stopped by air attacks? Bombing arms dumps and concentrations of rebels may hinder their advance but AQIM can only be quelled by troops on the ground who have the support of locals. At present the Malian Army is weak and lacks morale. That means the French will probably have to provide the core of a force that includes soldiers from other West African countries. They may get help from Tuareg nationalists but they remain untrusted. Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, has said the action in would be over "in a matter of weeks". These are words he may regret.
"Fowler (voormalig gijzelaar van Al Qaeda in de Sahara (AQIM) en huidig gezant voor Niger) beschrijft in zijn boek dat zijn gijzelnemers het eentonige woestijnlandschap van Noord- Mali op hun duimpje kenden. Ze reden dagenlang door valleien van vrijwel identieke zandduinen met de zon als enige navigatie. Hoewel er geen tankstations waren, zaten ze nooit zonder brandstof. Soms stopten ze ineens bij een boom waar vaten met diesel begraven lagen. Of ze begroeven een tas met laarzen en markeerden de plek met GPS zodat ze hem terug konden vinden. Ze zaten nooit zonder voedsel, terwijl ze nooit bij een winkel of markt stopten, wat aantoont hoe omvangrijk hun netwerk met materieel en proviand is."
Wat met olie kan is ook mogelijk met wapens en munitie.
Pauline Bax, NRC Handelsblad, 15 januari 2013, 'Al-Qaeda wil chaos in heel N-Afrika'; Interview Canadese diplomaat Robert Fowler zat 130 dagen gevangen bij Al-Qaeda in Mali
Ottawa is also indirectly helping Mali through Exercise Flintlock, an annual U.S.-run military training exercise for West Africa.
The Harper government is already in the early stages of providing military training to neighbouring Niger, one of the top countries providing soldiers to help fight the rebels in Mali and a participant in Flintlock.
Canada has sent almost two dozen Canadian Forces special operations personnel to train Niger troops in reconnaissance, land navigation, marksmanship and other basic military skills. The training will start in Niger, but the Canadians and troops from Niger will move to Mauritania for Flintlock, an approximately three-week exercise starting in late February. The Canadian trainers are expected home after mid-March.
Mr. Harper played down any connection between Canada's Niger training efforts and the help to Mali, suggesting one wouldn't blur into the other. "They are not directly related to that. They will proceed in the normal fashion and they will terminate in the normal fashion."
STEVEN CHASE and CAMPBELL CLARK, Canada joins mission to Mali; Vowing commitment will be limited, Ottawa sends military aircraft to transport French combat forces, The Globe and Mail (Canada), 14 januari 2013
14 januari 2013
Commando_s_en_mariniers_naar_oefening_in_Afrika
Zie ook:
2011/02/nederlanders-in-war-on-terrorin-afrika.html
2011/02/dutch-and-war-on-terror-in-africa.html
2011/04/flintlock-kamervragen.html
14 januari 2013
Islamist rebels 'outmanoeuvred' Algeria in Malian crisis, says paper (Zine Cherfaoui, 'Casting error?' in El Watan website on 14 January tranlation: BBC Worldwide Monitoring January 14, 2013)
Algeria was naive to think that it could persuade Ag Ghali, the head of the Ansar Eddine Islamist group, whose acolytes now control several towns in the Azawad, to renounce violence and negotiate wisely with Bamako a political settlement to the Malian crisis. Yet, such an error of judgement is difficult to explain. Algeria is a country that has paid a heavy price in the struggle against terrorism. Everybody now knows for quite a long time that one cannot really trust an armed Islamist group. The jihadists have tried hard to get rid of their natural traits but the latter quickly came back. The proof: while his emissaries to Ouagadougou were asking for more time in order, they said, to better prepare for a dialogue with Bamako, the head of the Ansar Eddine movement was on the verge of issuing orders to his troops to melt in the ranks of the Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb [AQMI] legion and of the movement for unity and jihad in West Africa [Mujao] to rush in a beeline movement towards the locality of Konna.
Obviously one can always try to talk about the reasons that convinced Iyad Ag Ghali, this mysterious personage that has become a master in the art of manipulation and stabbing in the back, to break his promise made to Algiers just 15 days ago that he will spare no effort to extinguish the Malian fire for good, and to take up arms again against Bamako. But the facts are here: despite Algiers warnings, Ansar Eddine joined ranks again with the AQMI and the Mujao to "punish" Bamako, which is guilty, according to them, of failing to get seriously involved in a quest for a solution to the crisis. The current situation shows, at any rate, that the Ansar Eddine leaders have misled their Algerian contacts and that they have their own agenda.
But then has Algeria proved to be right in the end to promote dialogue in this conflict that broke out at its borders? Yes, obviously. It would be a serious mistake to think for one moment that the Malian crisis will be settled solely by arms. However, there seems to have been a casting error in the choice of certain protagonists of the crisis. Was it indeed a good idea to try at any cost, for some reason that still eludes all, to place Ansar Eddine at the forefront and to marginalise the others actors of the Azawad who are, yet, much more prone to engage in politics?
Canada's military involvement in Niger has already commenced. A heavy-lift C-17 transport plane is currently in Africa where it's delivering Special Operations personnel to Niger for preliminary training and preparation for Exercise Flintlock, an annual West African training exercise sponsored by the U.S. military.
The exercise, aimed at helped West African countries fight terrorism, will take place in Mauritania in February and March, the Canadian government says.
The Canadian contingent of defence personnel participating in Flintlock 13 will number fewer than 24.
They'll train the Niger Armed Forces in reconnaissance, land navigation, marksmanship and other basic military skills. The training will start in Niger but the Canadians and troops from Niger will move to Mauritania for Exercise Flintlock.
Major Douglas MacNair, a spokesman for Canadian Special Operations Forces Command, said Canada will not train Malian forces. But, he noted, the U.S. war exercise will help stabilize the region.
"Flintlock involves the capacity building of several countries within the Sahel region. As Niger shares a border with Mali, strengthening the capacity of Nigerien Armed Forces contributes to regional security."
The annual Flintlock exercise takes place in different western African countries each year. Canada last participated in 2011. The 2012 exercise, which was supposed to take place in Mali, was cancelled because that country's army was busy responding to attacks from Tuareg separatists.
woensdag 9 januari 2013
Mijn losse-Syrië-wapens-flodders en signaleringen her-en-der
On this blog information is collected about arms in Syria and neighbouring countries and cartoons are used as illustrations. Broekstukken is not agreeing with all text and pictures, but reproducing them as a service to readers.
Syria: how we can end the bloodshed
Russia will on Tuesday land two planes in Lebanon to evacuate more than 100 of its citizens from Syria, in a significant blow to the credibility of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Along with Iran, Russia has been the main ally of Mr Assad since the start of the conflict in March 2011. It has remained Syria’s biggest arms supplier and maintained a small naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast at Tartus. Moscow has routinely used its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to shield his regime from sanctions.
Alex Spillius, Diplomatic Correspondent and Tom Parfitt in Moscow, 'Russia to evacuate citizens from Syria,' The Telegraph 22 januari 2013.
While the Al-Nusrah Front has influence in the rural areas of Aleppo and Idlib, the Aleppo-based Al-Faruq Brigades is considered one of the most important Syrian fighter factions "owing to the heavy arms it had seized from the 46th Regiment, which fell under the control of the opposition two months ago," according to leading sources close to Al-Faruq [Brigades]. Sources have told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that this battalion "possesses [Russian-made anti-tank] Metis missiles. It fired some of them on the Police Academy during the last battle at the academy, under the leadership of Captain Ammar Sa'd-al-Din. It also has the 130-mm Howitzers. It took part in shelling the Idlib-based Taftanaz Military Airport during the siege before the airport was taken over yesterday."
Assassination of key Syrian rebel figure draws fears of infighting, Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat website on January, Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, January 18, 2013
Lebanon minister’s convoy attacked, 11 wounded
January 18, 2013 12:25 PM (Last updated: January 18, 2013 06:45 PM)
By Misbah al-Ali
The Daily Star
The Army has deployed in the area on several occasions over clashes between supporters and opponents of the Syrian government, but Charbel said the “issue was bigger than the military, security forces and the Lebanese government.”
In an earlier chat with reporters at Karami's residence, Charbel said political cover should be lifted from gunmen in the city.
“When [political] cover is lifted then we can resolve the issue of armed individuals,” he said.
Charbel said the incident was a result of shortcomings by the government and security forces but said political figures could no longer control their supporters who he said were heavily armed.
Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jan-18/202780-gunfire-roads-blocked-in-north-lebanon.ashx#ixzz2IR471dNs (The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)
Hoe ver reiken Patriots?
Over het bereik van de Patriotsystemen meldt nrc.next (8 januari) het volgende: ,,Defensie stelt officieel dat de Patriot PAC-3 niet hoger komt dan 20 kilometer en niet verder dan 60 kilometer. Onafhankelijke bronnen zeggen echter dat de PAC-3 meer kan: een ballistische raket op 30 kilometer hoogte raken en op 160 kilometer afstand gevechtsvliegtuigen en kruisraketten raken".
Naar aanleiding van de Turkijemissie werden feitelijke vragen gesteld over het effectieve horizontale en verticale bereik van de Nederlandse, Duitse en Amerikaanse Patriots. De regering schreef: ,,Het begrip 'effectief bereik' slaat op het bereik waarbinnen een onderschepping door een Patriotraket op effectieve wijze kan plaatsvinden. Dit gebied is vanwege de afstand van de locatie van de Nederlandse systemen tot aan de grens met Syrië beperkt tot Turks grondgebied".
Als de informatie van uw onafhankelijke bron klopt, dan is het antwoord van de regering op de feitelijke Kamervragen op zijn minst misleidend. Dat is relevant omdat hieruit volgt dat vanuit de huidige plaatsingslocatie een no-fly zone kan worden ingesteld boven Syrisch grondgebied.
Karel Koster (Wetenschappelijk bureau SP, Brieven, NRC.Next, 17 januari 2013.
Australia has effectively ruled out any contribution to arming the rebels. Mr Hague played down any suggestion of a difference of opinion between Australia and Britain, saying an end to the arms embargo merely gave "flexibility" to send life-saving equipment such as body armour or chemical detection equipment to the rebels."But how much we want to use that flexibility will depend on the situation. Our efforts are directed to a peaceful diplomatic and political solution in Syria. We don't believe there is a solution from the military victory of one side over another. That would leave Syria in an even more catastrophic position."Senator Carr said that Australia would present its plan for protecting medical workers and ensuring access to hospitals in Syria to the United Nations Security Council on Friday.
David Wroe, 'Perfect storm' fears on Middle East', The Age (Melbourne, Australia), 18 januari 2013.
15 januari 2013
Recently, Sakr 122mm cargo rockets and their submunitions have been ‘Grad
’, or ‘hail’) and other 122mm systems such as the Chinese Type 81 SPRL and Egyptian RL-21 and RC-21 launch vehicles. These surface-to-surface multiple rocket launcher systems are not designed for precise fires, but instead target wide areas; this effect is, of course, even more pronounced when firing submunition-dispensing rockets from these systems. Despite multiple reports to the contrary, these munitions are not Iranian, but were produced in Egypt at the Sakr Factory for Development Industries, a subsidiary of the Egyptian Arab Organization for Industrialization(AOI). The AOI logo can be seen very clearly on the rocket in the video below, and the full name along with ‘Sakr Factory’ can be seen printed on the rockets in Arabic in the images at the bottom of this article.Van: 2013/01/15/sakr-122mm-cargo-rockets-submunitions-in-syria/ Zie ook: http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/01/14/syria-army-using-new-type-cluster-munition
14 januari 2013
Arm Syrian insurgents, says Rudd; Australia-British talks
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd says the international community should consider arming Syrian rebels in a bid to end its bloody civil war.
But the Gillard Government flatly rejected the idea that Australia might help supply the weapons and said it was only willing to provide medical aid to the war's victims.
Mr Rudd's comments come before the British defence and foreign secretaries meet Defence Minister Stephen Smith and Foreign Affairs Minister Bob Carr in Perth this week for talks on, Iran and regional security.
Mr Rudd, who has previously called for stronger action against the Syrian regime, said the world should deploy all available options to save lives.
If that means relevant states with the capacity to provide to the Syrian national coalition to protect themselves, then so be it, Mr Rudd said.
Last week, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said he would lobby the European Union to lift an Syria, which could open the way for Britain to provide weapons to Syrian rebels.
Syria is well past the point of being a humanitarian crisis, it is on the road to becoming a crime against humanity, Mr Rudd said.
12 januari 2013
BEIRUT: A Syrian rebel group that the US has labelled an affiliate of al-Qaeda in Iraq appears on the verge of overrunning a government airbase used to launch helicopter strikes against rebel-held areas in Syria's north.
According to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the offensive at Taftanaz, an airbase near the road that links the Syrian cities of Idlib and Aleppo, is being led by the Nusra Front, which the US State Department designated a terrorist organisation last month.
Ahrar al-Sham, another rebel group that, like the Nusra Front, wants to establish an Islamic state in Syria, is participating in the offensive, according to its internet postings.
A US State Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, offered an upbeat assessment of the rebel advance on Thursday, saying the likely takeover of the base was a sign the abilities of the ''armed opposition'' were growing.
She did not acknowledge in her remarks the assault on the base was spearheaded by the Nusra Front. State Department spokesmen did not respond to later requests for comment.
The latest fighting came as Britain said it would urge the European Union to ''amend'' its arms embargo on Syria to allow equipment such as body armour and chemical detectors to be given to the rebel alliance.
Last November, Britain ensured that the EU arms embargo on Syria was extended for only three months instead of a year.
The British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said when this measure comes up for renewal before March 1, it should be watered down to allow the option of supplying a broader range of non-lethal equipment.
''We should send a strong signal to [Syrian leader Bashar al-] Assad that all options are on the table. We will therefore seek to amend the EU sanctions so that the possibility of additional assistance is not closed off,'' he said.
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/rebels-linked-to-alqaeda-set-to-take-syrian-airbase-20130111-2cl7s.html
Syria: how we can end the bloodshed
Israel's attack on Syria shows how volatile this conflict is. A political solution is now urgent, by Jonathan Steele The Guardian,
Russia will on Tuesday land two planes in Lebanon to evacuate more than 100 of its citizens from Syria, in a significant blow to the credibility of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Along with Iran, Russia has been the main ally of Mr Assad since the start of the conflict in March 2011. It has remained Syria’s biggest arms supplier and maintained a small naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast at Tartus. Moscow has routinely used its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to shield his regime from sanctions.
Alex Spillius, Diplomatic Correspondent and Tom Parfitt in Moscow, 'Russia to evacuate citizens from Syria,' The Telegraph 22 januari 2013.
Assassination of key Syrian rebel figure draws fears of infighting, Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat website on January, Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, January 18, 2013
Lebanon minister’s convoy attacked, 11 wounded
January 18, 2013 12:25 PM (Last updated: January 18, 2013 06:45 PM)
By Misbah al-Ali
The Daily Star
The Army has deployed in the area on several occasions over clashes between supporters and opponents of the Syrian government, but Charbel said the “issue was bigger than the military, security forces and the Lebanese government.”
In an earlier chat with reporters at Karami's residence, Charbel said political cover should be lifted from gunmen in the city.
“When [political] cover is lifted then we can resolve the issue of armed individuals,” he said.
Charbel said the incident was a result of shortcomings by the government and security forces but said political figures could no longer control their supporters who he said were heavily armed.
Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jan-18/202780-gunfire-roads-blocked-in-north-lebanon.ashx#ixzz2IR471dNs (The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)
Naar aanleiding van de Turkijemissie werden feitelijke vragen gesteld over het effectieve horizontale en verticale bereik van de Nederlandse, Duitse en Amerikaanse Patriots. De regering schreef: ,,Het begrip 'effectief bereik' slaat op het bereik waarbinnen een onderschepping door een Patriotraket op effectieve wijze kan plaatsvinden. Dit gebied is vanwege de afstand van de locatie van de Nederlandse systemen tot aan de grens met Syrië beperkt tot Turks grondgebied".
Als de informatie van uw onafhankelijke bron klopt, dan is het antwoord van de regering op de feitelijke Kamervragen op zijn minst misleidend. Dat is relevant omdat hieruit volgt dat vanuit de huidige plaatsingslocatie een no-fly zone kan worden ingesteld boven Syrisch grondgebied.
Karel Koster (Wetenschappelijk bureau SP, Brieven, NRC.Next, 17 januari 2013.
Australia has effectively ruled out any contribution to arming the rebels. Mr Hague played down any suggestion of a difference of opinion between Australia and Britain, saying an end to the arms embargo merely gave "flexibility" to send life-saving equipment such as body armour or chemical detection equipment to the rebels."But how much we want to use that flexibility will depend on the situation. Our efforts are directed to a peaceful diplomatic and political solution in Syria. We don't believe there is a solution from the military victory of one side over another. That would leave Syria in an even more catastrophic position."Senator Carr said that Australia would present its plan for protecting medical workers and ensuring access to hospitals in Syria to the United Nations Security Council on Friday.
David Wroe, 'Perfect storm' fears on Middle East', The Age (Melbourne, Australia), 18 januari 2013.
Recently, Sakr 122mm cargo rockets and their submunitions have been ‘Grad
’, or ‘hail’) and other 122mm systems such as the Chinese Type 81 SPRL and Egyptian RL-21 and RC-21 launch vehicles. These surface-to-surface multiple rocket launcher systems are not designed for precise fires, but instead target wide areas; this effect is, of course, even more pronounced when firing submunition-dispensing rockets from these systems. Despite multiple reports to the contrary, these munitions are not Iranian, but were produced in Egypt at the Sakr Factory for Development Industries, a subsidiary of the Egyptian Arab Organization for Industrialization(AOI). The AOI logo can be seen very clearly on the rocket in the video below, and the full name along with ‘Sakr Factory’ can be seen printed on the rockets in Arabic in the images at the bottom of this article.Van: 2013/01/15/sakr-122mm-cargo-rockets-submunitions-in-syria/ Zie ook: http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/01/14/syria-army-using-new-type-cluster-munition
Arm Syrian insurgents, says Rudd; Australia-British talks
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd says the international community should consider arming Syrian rebels in a bid to end its bloody civil war.
But the Gillard Government flatly rejected the idea that Australia might help supply the weapons and said it was only willing to provide medical aid to the war's victims.
Mr Rudd's comments come before the British defence and foreign secretaries meet Defence Minister Stephen Smith and Foreign Affairs Minister Bob Carr in Perth this week for talks on, Iran and regional security.
Mr Rudd, who has previously called for stronger action against the Syrian regime, said the world should deploy all available options to save lives.
If that means relevant states with the capacity to provide to the Syrian national coalition to protect themselves, then so be it, Mr Rudd said.
Last week, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said he would lobby the European Union to lift an Syria, which could open the way for Britain to provide weapons to Syrian rebels.
Syria is well past the point of being a humanitarian crisis, it is on the road to becoming a crime against humanity, Mr Rudd said.
12 januari 2013
BEIRUT: A Syrian rebel group that the US has labelled an affiliate of al-Qaeda in Iraq appears on the verge of overrunning a government airbase used to launch helicopter strikes against rebel-held areas in Syria's north.
According to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the offensive at Taftanaz, an airbase near the road that links the Syrian cities of Idlib and Aleppo, is being led by the Nusra Front, which the US State Department designated a terrorist organisation last month.
Ahrar al-Sham, another rebel group that, like the Nusra Front, wants to establish an Islamic state in Syria, is participating in the offensive, according to its internet postings.
A US State Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, offered an upbeat assessment of the rebel advance on Thursday, saying the likely takeover of the base was a sign the abilities of the ''armed opposition'' were growing.
She did not acknowledge in her remarks the assault on the base was spearheaded by the Nusra Front. State Department spokesmen did not respond to later requests for comment.
The latest fighting came as Britain said it would urge the European Union to ''amend'' its arms embargo on Syria to allow equipment such as body armour and chemical detectors to be given to the rebel alliance.
Last November, Britain ensured that the EU arms embargo on Syria was extended for only three months instead of a year.
The British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said when this measure comes up for renewal before March 1, it should be watered down to allow the option of supplying a broader range of non-lethal equipment.
''We should send a strong signal to [Syrian leader Bashar al-] Assad that all options are on the table. We will therefore seek to amend the EU sanctions so that the possibility of additional assistance is not closed off,'' he said.
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/rebels-linked-to-alqaeda-set-to-take-syrian-airbase-20130111-2cl7s.html
8 januari 2013
Salih Musallam, head of the Kurdistan
Democratic Union party, which actually holds the reins of
power on the ground in the Kurdish areas in Syria, said:
"We, the Kurdish people,
were part of the Syrian revolution and are still in revolt against
the Syrian regime. From the beginning, the Kurds made the decision to
stick to a peaceful revolution while reserving the right to defend
themselves. This is what we have been doing in our areas up to this
day. Tens of thousands took to the streets and still take to the
streets in peaceful demonstrations in our areas. When the Syrian
regime forces attacked the demonstrators, we defended our people and
many of our people were martyred. Our basic decision was to refuse
arming the demonstrators because we realized from the beginning that
if we waged an armed revolution while the Syrian authorities and
security agencies had all types of weapons at their disposal, they
would handle the demonstrators and protesters with utmost savagery.
In terms of weapons, we were the weaker party and we were convinced
that if we entered armed struggle against the regime, we would
certainly need a foreign power to supply us with arms. We avoided
this because we did not want others to impose on us their will and
agenda as is happening today. It was not our fault, but the fault of
the other party. The party in the Arab areas was unable to maintain
the peaceful nature of the revolution, and some parties, particularly
Turkey, succeeded in dragging the rebels to the current situation.
Turkey succeeded in making the peaceful revolution deviate from its
path. What is happening today is deviation by the revolution from its
path and turning into a struggle for power. This situation makes us
fear the future. The revolution no longer demands freedom and
democracy; it is now struggle for power. There are people who want a
dictator to quit to replace him with another dictator."
BBC Monitoring Middle East (part
of text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat
website on 5 January)
De drie No's. De
Syrische Saraa Saleh studeerde architectuur in de havenstad Latakia
in het westen van Syrië. In 2001 kwam ze naar België om te studeren
aan de KU Leuven, waar ze een master en later een doctoraat over
Romeinse amfitheaters in Syrië behaalde aan de faculteit oosterse
studies. Nu werkt ze aan de faculteit Arabistiek en Islamkunde en het
Instituut voor Levende Talen van de KU Leuven. Sinds 2006 woont ze
met uitzondering van de zomermaanden permanent in België. MO* sprak
met haar over de situatie in Syrië: 'Ik geloof in de drie No's: neen
tegen tirannie, neen tegen geweld en neen tegen buitenlandse
(militaire) interventie.'
4 januari 2013
Smuggled Gaza-Bound Missiles US-Made?
Maybe Not
Egyptian authorities say that the six
anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles they seized from alleged
smugglers headed for Gaza were of U.S. origin – but weapons
proliferation experts cast doubt on the claim.The weapons, which were
intercepted in the Sinai desert, were believed to have come from
Libya and to have been manufactured by U.S. firms, Egyptian security
sources told reporters.
But Peter Bouckaert of Human Rights
Watch, who tracked weapons in Libya after the fall of Gadhafi, said
he "was not aware of any American weapons in Libya neither from
the days of Gadhafi nor under the rebels."
"This is probably a
misidentification of weapons systems, confusing weapons made by NATO
allies such as France and Italy with U.S.-made weapons," said
Bouckaert.
maandag 7 januari 2013
Wapens naar Syrië
De financiële waarde van de wapenhandel naar het Syrië van Assad ligt de afgelopen jaren tussen de 150 en 230 miljoen euro. De jaren daarvoor waren de leveringen veel kleiner. Het land heeft maar een beperkt aantal leveranciers: met stip op 1 is dat Rusland. Het land zal daar mee door gaan. Het wordt gevolgd door het fraaie span Wit-Rusland, Iran en Noord-Korea. (zie tabel 1)
Er was ook sprake van dat Zuid-Afrika wapens leverde, vooralsnog lijkt het erop alsof het alleen gaat om verstrekte exportvergunningen en verkoop pogingen.
Het
gaat bij die leveranties o.a. om een keur aan raketten. Daarbij
vallen de Scuds uit Noord-Korea op; en het feit dat Israël en de VS
konden voorkomen dat Rusland draagbare afvuursystemen leverde voor
luchtdoelraketten van het type SA-18-grouse. Verder zijn de afgelopen
tien jaar gevechtsvliegtuigen van de types MIG en Yakolev geleverd,
en kleine marineschepen (zie bijlage 1).
Volgens een VN-rapport van eind december kwamen uit 29 landen grote aantallen buitenlandse strijders, grotendeels extremistische Salafisten, Syrië binnen. Ook wapens weten via de poreuze grenzen hun weg naar de rebellen te vinden. De drie belangrijkste bronnen zijn Libië, Saoedi-Arabië en Qatar. Op de site van New York Times journalist C.J Chivers staan daar legio voorbeelden van, zoals een kist met vermoedelijk kleinkaliber munitie die via Saoedi-Arabië naar Syrië is gegaan.
Turkije is op de hand van de rebellen in Syrië. Alhoewel naar eigen zeggen niet met wapenleveranties, maar de grenscontrole doet weinig om smokkel te voorkomen. Via de grensovergangen met Turkije komen wapens binnen die uit Saoedi-Arabie en Qatar afkomstig zijn. NBC meldt eind juli dat via de Turkse grens luchtdoelraketten de grens over gaan. The National uit de VAE komt met het verhaal dat veel in Turkije geproduceerde handvuurwapens opduiken in Syrië. In de New York Times stond in juni een artikel dat de CIA betrokken is bij het de grens over smokkelen van lichte en zwaardere handvuurwapens.
Ook via Irak worden wapens Syrië binnengebracht. De grenzen tussen Irak en Syrië zijn zo lek als een mandje, aldus het Iraanse Press TV. In december 2012 maakte de Iraakse landmacht kalshnikovs en zware wapensals mortieren en zware machinegeweren buit op smokkelaars, zo weet een Iraakse TV-zender. Op een Iraanse site wordt gesteld dat Saoedi Arabië via Irak wapens Syrië binnen smokkelt. Een deel ervan blijft in Irak om daar de Saoedische positie te versterken.
De Libanese grens ziet wapenhandel naar twee kanten. Het Syrische regime stuurt wapens naar Libanon. (zie Tabel 2) Het Vrije Syrische Leger (FSA) krijgt op zijn beurt juist wapens via Libanon. Een paar maal zijn er wapens vanuit Libië onderschept.
Jordanië lijkt wel redelijk gesloten. De route was in juli 2012 niet populair. “De Jordaniërs hebben de meeste transporten van daar geblokkeerd,” aldus een opstandeling.
Verder is er sprake van dat - zoals in vrijwel ieder grootschalig conflict - de rebellen wapens buitmaken op het regime, o.a. door het veroveren van bases en opslagplaatsen. Dat gebeurde ook vlak voor kerst afgelopen jaar. De buit bevatte toen onder meer geschut uit de Tweede Wereldoorlog dat nog in de orginele verpakking zat, maar ook een lading handvuurwapens. De wapens zijn verspreid over de regio Aleppo. Ook veroverden de rebellen recent een munitieopslagplaats in de buitenwijken van Aleppo. De vreugde was van korte duur; de gebouwen werden door het Syrische regime gebombardeerd, meldt de Saoedische nieuwszender Al Arabya.
Niet van alle wapens is bekend hoe ze in Syrië terecht zijn gekomen. Zo is het de vraag waar de munitie vandaan kwam die eerder aangetroffen werd op een moederschip van Somalische piraten. Of de wie de partij Belgische FN-FAL geweren leverde die bij de FSA werd aangetroffen. In een artikel van de journalist Damien Peeters wordt verondersteld dat Qatar een partij aan Libië leverde.
Dansen op de oorlog
Ook wapens uit Libië duiken nu bij het verzet in Syrië op (evenals in vele andere conflictgebieden in de regio). Het gaat daarbij onder andere om mobiel te lanceren luchtdoelraketten, zoals de Noord-Koreaanse F-7 en mogelijk de Russische PG-7VL HEAT -7, zo stelt de Rogue Adventurer (die nauw samenwerkt met C.J. Chivers van de New York Times) op zijn blog.
In Libië is intern nog steeds sprake van een levensgevaarlijke situatie, waar strijdgroepen veelal de touwtjes in handen hebben. Libische wapens duiken op in heel Noord-Afrika, gaan van conflict naar conflict en staan een oplossing in de weg. Al eerder schreef ik over de effecten van de toevloed van Libische wapens op de situatie in Mali.
In Syrië dreigt hetzelfde te gaan gebeuren, in een nog gevaarlijker deel van de wereld. De Russische vice-premier Dimitri Rogozin stelde in oktober 2012 op de Russische TV dat “het een slechte oplossing is om vuur met benzine te doven.” Rusland is een bondgenoot van Syrië en kan belang hebben bij een een dergelijke zienswijze, maar ook voormalig CIA-analist Bob Ayers zegt bij de Voice of America dat het een groot probleem is dat buitenlandse machten niet weten bij wie de wapens precies terecht komen.
Je mag ervan uitgaan dat Westerse inlichtingendiensten weten wat er gebeurt. Dat is ook de mening van Graham Cundy, voormalig officier met ervaring in speciale operaties en contraterrorisme in het Midden-Oosten. "In situaties zoals in Syrië liggen de prioriteiten van de Britse overheid meer bij het verzamelen van inlichtingen en het begrijpen van de ontwikkelingen dan het bevoorraden van de ene of andere groepering. (…) Iedere inlichtingendienst die die naam waard is zal rondhangen in de grensgebieden om de netwerken te leren kennen die de bevoorrading van de strijdende partijen voor hun rekening nemen," aldus Cundy.
Die kennis is van grote waarde, want de netwerken worden mogelijk ook voor het smokkelen naar extremisten gebruikt. Dat impliceert dat men redelijk goed op de hoogte is wat er gebeurt. Toch is dat allerminst een garantie dat het goed zal gaan. Ook in Libië hadden westerse landen troepen in het gebied.
Tenslotte zegt Tenslotte zegt Roed-Larsen, de speciaal vertegenwoordiger van de VN voor VR-resolutie 1159 (betreft het terugtrekken Syrische troepen uit Libanon): "What we see across the region is a dance of death at the brink of the abyss of war."
Europese dubbelzinnigheid
De Europese Unie heeft 9 mei 2011 een wapenembargo ingesteld tegen Syrië. Maar terecht stelt Tomas Baum van het Vredesinstiuut van het Vlaamse Parlement:"Vandaag is er bijvoorbeeld een Europees embargo van kracht tegen Syrië. Saoedi-Arabië maakt er geen geheim van dat het groepen in Syrië bewapent, en toch wordt veel wapenexport naar het land vergund. In het licht van consistente Europese regels inzake wapenexport, stelt zich hier een duidelijk probleem." Het Europese Netwerk Tegen de Wapenhandel (ENAAT) wijst er op dat de Saoedi's inmiddels de VS hebben ingehaald als belangrijkste importeur van Europese wapens. In de praktijk is het stoppen van de wapensmokkel naar Syrië voor het Westen net zo min een prioriteit als het bewapenen van de rebellen van het Vrije Syrische Leger. Zo kunnen Qatar en Saoedi Arabië hun invloed in Syrië vergroten. Doorslaggevend is die wapenhandel en -smokkel niet, maar het houdt het conflict wel gaande en neemt alvast een hypotheek op komende conflicten en oorlogen.
Zie ook: Interview – Martin Broek: ‘De Syrische burgeroorlog leidt niet tot een conclusie’
Noot: Voor het schrijven van dit artikel is gebruik gemaakt van bronnen uit Irak, Iran, Israël, Qatar, Rusland, Saoedi-Arabië, de VN, VS en Zweden. Dat geeft niet alleen een breed beeld, maar houdt – hoewel ik informatie heb gewogen – ook het risico in dat niet alle informatie accuraat is.
Dit artikel is geschreven in het kader van een onderzoek naar 'de Libische wapens' met steun van het Fonds Vredesprojecten.
Er was ook sprake van dat Zuid-Afrika wapens leverde, vooralsnog lijkt het erop alsof het alleen gaat om verstrekte exportvergunningen en verkoop pogingen.
Tabel 1: wapenexport naar Syrië,
2000-2011, 3 januari 2013
in US$ m. (1990), Source: SIPRI Arms
Transfers Database (more information, see
http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/background |
|||||||||||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Totaal | |
| Wit Rusland |
24
|
172
|
196
|
||||||||||
| Iran |
54
|
5
|
5
|
45
|
109
|
||||||||
| Noord-Korea |
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
50
|
|||||||
| Rusland |
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
16
|
81
|
187
|
294
|
246
|
863
|
|
| Totaal |
17
|
17
|
17
|
41
|
17
|
7
|
70
|
253
|
192
|
299
|
291
|
1218
|
|
| Noot: Door afrondingen kunnen totalen afwijken van de afzonderlijke cijfers. | |||||||||||||
Spioneren
en hacken*
Niet
alleen de wapens bepalen het verloop van een moderne binnenlandse
oorlog. Ook door het controleren van communicatiemiddelen (zoals
telefoons en internetactiviteiten) van zijn burgers krijgt een
staat grip op zijn bevolking. En die middelen komen uit de Westerse
landen. Persbureau Bloomberg meldde
vorig jaar dat Blue Coat Systems Inc. (BCSI) en NetApp Inc uit de VS,
Qosmos SA uit Frankrijk, Sohos uit Engeland en het Duitse bedrijf UtimacoSafeware
AG software voor repressieve doeleinden leverden aan Syrië. Medewerkers
van het Italiaanse
AreaSpa hebben met deze geleverde technologie de infrastructuur opgezet die het Syrische regime in staat stelt vrijwel elke verzonden email en GSM-bericht te
onderscheppen. Vanuit de VS mocht niet aan Syrië geleverd worden,
maar leveranties aan Italië waren wel legaal. NetApp beweert dat ze
geen idee heeft hoe hun systemen vervolgens in Syrië terecht kwamen.
In februari kwam naar buiten dat Syrië technologie van het Ierse
bedrijf Cellusys gebruikt voor het filteren van telefoonberichten. De Europese Unie heeft zijn controle op de export van deze technologie in maart 2012 verscherpt. Momenteel komen vooral uit het Verenigd Koninkrijk geluiden dat men het embargo wil versoepen om de opstandelingen te voorzien van militaire goederen, mogelijk zelfs wapens.
(* Zie voor dit onderwerp ook mijn eerder blogs: Versleutelen en tappen en Pottenkijkers in Dubai.)
Smokkel
(* Zie voor dit onderwerp ook mijn eerder blogs: Versleutelen en tappen en Pottenkijkers in Dubai.)
Smokkel
Volgens een VN-rapport van eind december kwamen uit 29 landen grote aantallen buitenlandse strijders, grotendeels extremistische Salafisten, Syrië binnen. Ook wapens weten via de poreuze grenzen hun weg naar de rebellen te vinden. De drie belangrijkste bronnen zijn Libië, Saoedi-Arabië en Qatar. Op de site van New York Times journalist C.J Chivers staan daar legio voorbeelden van, zoals een kist met vermoedelijk kleinkaliber munitie die via Saoedi-Arabië naar Syrië is gegaan.
Turkije is op de hand van de rebellen in Syrië. Alhoewel naar eigen zeggen niet met wapenleveranties, maar de grenscontrole doet weinig om smokkel te voorkomen. Via de grensovergangen met Turkije komen wapens binnen die uit Saoedi-Arabie en Qatar afkomstig zijn. NBC meldt eind juli dat via de Turkse grens luchtdoelraketten de grens over gaan. The National uit de VAE komt met het verhaal dat veel in Turkije geproduceerde handvuurwapens opduiken in Syrië. In de New York Times stond in juni een artikel dat de CIA betrokken is bij het de grens over smokkelen van lichte en zwaardere handvuurwapens.
Ook via Irak worden wapens Syrië binnengebracht. De grenzen tussen Irak en Syrië zijn zo lek als een mandje, aldus het Iraanse Press TV. In december 2012 maakte de Iraakse landmacht kalshnikovs en zware wapensals mortieren en zware machinegeweren buit op smokkelaars, zo weet een Iraakse TV-zender. Op een Iraanse site wordt gesteld dat Saoedi Arabië via Irak wapens Syrië binnen smokkelt. Een deel ervan blijft in Irak om daar de Saoedische positie te versterken.
Tabel 2: wapenexport Syrië, 2000-2011, 3 januari 2013
in US$ m. (1990), Source: SIPRI
Arms Transfers Database (more information, see
http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/background
|
||||||||
2000-2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
Total
|
|
Lebanon/Hizbollah
|
3
|
25
|
25
|
53
|
||||
Total
|
3
|
25
|
25
|
53
|
||||
De Libanese grens ziet wapenhandel naar twee kanten. Het Syrische regime stuurt wapens naar Libanon. (zie Tabel 2) Het Vrije Syrische Leger (FSA) krijgt op zijn beurt juist wapens via Libanon. Een paar maal zijn er wapens vanuit Libië onderschept.
Jordanië lijkt wel redelijk gesloten. De route was in juli 2012 niet populair. “De Jordaniërs hebben de meeste transporten van daar geblokkeerd,” aldus een opstandeling.
Verder is er sprake van dat - zoals in vrijwel ieder grootschalig conflict - de rebellen wapens buitmaken op het regime, o.a. door het veroveren van bases en opslagplaatsen. Dat gebeurde ook vlak voor kerst afgelopen jaar. De buit bevatte toen onder meer geschut uit de Tweede Wereldoorlog dat nog in de orginele verpakking zat, maar ook een lading handvuurwapens. De wapens zijn verspreid over de regio Aleppo. Ook veroverden de rebellen recent een munitieopslagplaats in de buitenwijken van Aleppo. De vreugde was van korte duur; de gebouwen werden door het Syrische regime gebombardeerd, meldt de Saoedische nieuwszender Al Arabya.
Niet van alle wapens is bekend hoe ze in Syrië terecht zijn gekomen. Zo is het de vraag waar de munitie vandaan kwam die eerder aangetroffen werd op een moederschip van Somalische piraten. Of de wie de partij Belgische FN-FAL geweren leverde die bij de FSA werd aangetroffen. In een artikel van de journalist Damien Peeters wordt verondersteld dat Qatar een partij aan Libië leverde.
Dansen op de oorlog
Ook wapens uit Libië duiken nu bij het verzet in Syrië op (evenals in vele andere conflictgebieden in de regio). Het gaat daarbij onder andere om mobiel te lanceren luchtdoelraketten, zoals de Noord-Koreaanse F-7 en mogelijk de Russische PG-7VL HEAT -7, zo stelt de Rogue Adventurer (die nauw samenwerkt met C.J. Chivers van de New York Times) op zijn blog.
In Libië is intern nog steeds sprake van een levensgevaarlijke situatie, waar strijdgroepen veelal de touwtjes in handen hebben. Libische wapens duiken op in heel Noord-Afrika, gaan van conflict naar conflict en staan een oplossing in de weg. Al eerder schreef ik over de effecten van de toevloed van Libische wapens op de situatie in Mali.
In Syrië dreigt hetzelfde te gaan gebeuren, in een nog gevaarlijker deel van de wereld. De Russische vice-premier Dimitri Rogozin stelde in oktober 2012 op de Russische TV dat “het een slechte oplossing is om vuur met benzine te doven.” Rusland is een bondgenoot van Syrië en kan belang hebben bij een een dergelijke zienswijze, maar ook voormalig CIA-analist Bob Ayers zegt bij de Voice of America dat het een groot probleem is dat buitenlandse machten niet weten bij wie de wapens precies terecht komen.
Je mag ervan uitgaan dat Westerse inlichtingendiensten weten wat er gebeurt. Dat is ook de mening van Graham Cundy, voormalig officier met ervaring in speciale operaties en contraterrorisme in het Midden-Oosten. "In situaties zoals in Syrië liggen de prioriteiten van de Britse overheid meer bij het verzamelen van inlichtingen en het begrijpen van de ontwikkelingen dan het bevoorraden van de ene of andere groepering. (…) Iedere inlichtingendienst die die naam waard is zal rondhangen in de grensgebieden om de netwerken te leren kennen die de bevoorrading van de strijdende partijen voor hun rekening nemen," aldus Cundy.
Die kennis is van grote waarde, want de netwerken worden mogelijk ook voor het smokkelen naar extremisten gebruikt. Dat impliceert dat men redelijk goed op de hoogte is wat er gebeurt. Toch is dat allerminst een garantie dat het goed zal gaan. Ook in Libië hadden westerse landen troepen in het gebied.
Tenslotte zegt Tenslotte zegt Roed-Larsen, de speciaal vertegenwoordiger van de VN voor VR-resolutie 1159 (betreft het terugtrekken Syrische troepen uit Libanon): "What we see across the region is a dance of death at the brink of the abyss of war."
Europese dubbelzinnigheid
De Europese Unie heeft 9 mei 2011 een wapenembargo ingesteld tegen Syrië. Maar terecht stelt Tomas Baum van het Vredesinstiuut van het Vlaamse Parlement:"Vandaag is er bijvoorbeeld een Europees embargo van kracht tegen Syrië. Saoedi-Arabië maakt er geen geheim van dat het groepen in Syrië bewapent, en toch wordt veel wapenexport naar het land vergund. In het licht van consistente Europese regels inzake wapenexport, stelt zich hier een duidelijk probleem." Het Europese Netwerk Tegen de Wapenhandel (ENAAT) wijst er op dat de Saoedi's inmiddels de VS hebben ingehaald als belangrijkste importeur van Europese wapens. In de praktijk is het stoppen van de wapensmokkel naar Syrië voor het Westen net zo min een prioriteit als het bewapenen van de rebellen van het Vrije Syrische Leger. Zo kunnen Qatar en Saoedi Arabië hun invloed in Syrië vergroten. Doorslaggevend is die wapenhandel en -smokkel niet, maar het houdt het conflict wel gaande en neemt alvast een hypotheek op komende conflicten en oorlogen.
Zie ook: Interview – Martin Broek: ‘De Syrische burgeroorlog leidt niet tot een conclusie’
Noot: Voor het schrijven van dit artikel is gebruik gemaakt van bronnen uit Irak, Iran, Israël, Qatar, Rusland, Saoedi-Arabië, de VN, VS en Zweden. Dat geeft niet alleen een breed beeld, maar houdt – hoewel ik informatie heb gewogen – ook het risico in dat niet alle informatie accuraat is.
Dit artikel is geschreven in het kader van een onderzoek naar 'de Libische wapens' met steun van het Fonds Vredesprojecten.