In february Chinese president Xi Jiping aimed for a presidency without end. At the same time it was rumoured that a Chinese fleet sailed into the Indian Ocean as a show of military force towards India. The largest vessels mentioned, so-called 52C destroyers, are capable of firing missiles against planes and ships, torpedo's against submarines and are fitted with a 100mm cannon. It shows the struggle for influence in Asia and the growing Chinese assertiveness on the international stage.
Tabel
1: Arms exports from the top 10 largest exporters + Netherlands
|
||||||
2000-2004
|
2008-2012
|
2012-2016
|
||||
United
States
|
1
|
30,745
|
1
|
40,077
|
1
|
47,169
|
Russia
|
2
|
27,024
|
2
|
34,442
|
2
|
33,186
|
China
|
7
|
2,443
|
5
|
6,126
|
3
|
8,768
|
France
|
3
|
7,810
|
4
|
7,634
|
4
|
8,561
|
Germany
(FRG)
|
4
|
6,187
|
3
|
9,812
|
5
|
7,912
|
United
Kingdom
|
5
|
6,040
|
6
|
5,092
|
6
|
6,586
|
Spain
|
22
|
0
|
7
|
3,790
|
7
|
3,958
|
Italy
|
10
|
1,570
|
9
|
3,164
|
8
|
3,823
|
Ukraine
|
9
|
1,591
|
8
|
3,335
|
9
|
3,677
|
Israel
|
6
|
2,569
|
10
|
2,763
|
10
|
3,233
|
Nederland
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
0
|
11
|
2,748
|
Sweden
|
8
|
2,244
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
1,652
|
Others
|
7,48
|
13,87
|
12,585
|
|||
Total
|
96,97
|
132,78
|
142.207
|
|||
Figures
are SIPRI Trend Indicator Values (TIVs) expressed in millions
|
||||||
With a emerging superpower in the Asia the security environment is volatile and nations in the region arm themselves against greater costs than they ever did. Australia has announced a 80 percent increase of it its military expenditures by 2015. India is the major arms buyer on the international market with 13 percent of all global arms imports. The US wants to change the command structure of its air force for use against China. Japan is acquiring 25 extra F-35's.
If it is an
arms race or not is up to debate but it cannot be denied that “total
defense spending of ASEAN states doubled over the last 15
years in absolute terms, with countries like Indonesia and Thailand
witnessing military expenditure growth rates of 10 percent on a
year-by-year basis,”
as Asia
Sentinel recently stated. On March 5th the Chinese
premier Li Keqiang announced to shrink its military forces by
300.000 soldiers but at the same time increases its budget with 8.1%
to € 140.7 billion (1.1 trillion Yuan). Thus going more for
advanced 'tech' and hardware.
EU
Exports of military products to China 2004-2016 (in €)
|
||
Country
|
Licenses
|
Exports
|
France
|
4,390,411,791
|
1,181,615,559
|
UK
|
672,848,560
|
n.a.
|
Italy
|
191,679,696
|
74,123,346
|
Germany
|
107,907,663
|
n.a.
|
Czech
Republic
|
38,492,535
|
19,276,857
|
Netherlands
|
31,821,784
|
34,984,526
|
Slovakia
|
7,895,230
|
1,295,067
|
Austria
|
3,573,821
|
1,315,621
|
Finland
|
1,029,400
|
329,790
|
Estonia
|
280,000
|
0
|
Spain
|
250,000
|
0
|
Slovenia
|
10,396
|
0
|
Latvia
|
9,207
|
6,837
|
EU
Annual Reports on exports of military technology and equipment,
searched with ENAAT European Union Arms Exports data bowser:
http://enaat.org/eu-export-browser/
|
||
Chinese
arms industry
Chinese
weapons are not fully on par with Western weapons. 75 Percent of the
capabilities for 50 percent of the price, as experts of the
International Institute for Strategic Studies summarised.
The gap is bridged at a fast rate. China becomes a superpower and
develops a weapon industry to underline that position. And China is
exporting its arms as well. Armed drones for example were sold to
several countries including Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,
the UAE
and Myanmar.
Since the
massacre on the Tiananmen square the European Union has an arms
embargo against China. For a long time it was a thorn in the EU-China
relations. But now its literally
a footnote in an official overview of EU restrictive measures
(sanctions) in force. The EU kept
the sanctions in place in 2006 after pressure from human rghts
campaigner sand from those fearing the Rise of the Middle Kingdom.
But what the French Minister of Defence Charles Millon already
in 1997 wanted: “cooperation in the technical, technological
and infrastructure fields” is reinforced. The embargo should not
hamper economic
and political cooperation. At present the embargo isn't a real
issue anymore, according
to Mathieu Duchatel, deputy director of the Asia and China
program at the European Council of Foreign Relations.
China has
its own arms industry, building planes, drones satellites, naval
vessels etc. A Chinese aircraft carrier with nuclear
propulsion may soon be built. The fabric of the world is
technologically progressing, also its arms industry. The need has
shifted from just military items towards advanced dual use technology
for the range of weapons China produces and needed for the
development of a new range of arms. According to Duchatel: “What
takes precedence today is access to critical technologies to overcome
specific bottlenecks, but also to create the conditions for
innovation and leadership for the next generations of arms.” This
is not only supported by the sales of arms and dual use but also by
research cooperation and investment in hi-tech firms. According to
You Ji – in his interesting book on the Chinese
military transformation – China embarked on the revolutionary
route to improve technology after the wars in Iraq (1991) and Kosovo
(1999). Relaxed political atmosphere opened the doors to global
military science and technology, Ji wrote.
This
relaxation showed of in a recent story on Chinese exports of turbine
blades for jet enigines from China to Germany. Those blades can
be used for fighter aircraft. Exports to a country known for its
high-quality products would improve the international image of
China’s manufacturing industry. And it may also want products in
return: “It can be either hardware or technology. The Germans are
very good at the design and engineering of compressors [which send
fresh air into the combustion chamber],” said a researcher involved
in the negotiations. US restrictions may still obstruct a deal on
dual-use technology. Another example: When UK company Dynexs
was bought by Zhouzhou for 8 million pounds it also acquired the
technology to improve its electric rail gun capacity and
electromagnetic catapults for its new aircraft carrier.
Dutch
dual use trade
Since 2004
the Dutch government publishes
individual dual use exports with information on item, end user
and value. The average share of China in the value of all dual-use
exports used to be below one percent. But it is more significantly
present in 2012, 2013 and especially 2018 with 17 percent for January
figures (see table 3).
Table
3: Exports of Dutch dual use items to China and Hong Kong
|
|||
Year
|
All
|
China
|
%
|
2004
|
4.914.784.684
|
4.027.482
|
0,08
|
2005
|
5.957.378.730
|
23.761.997
|
0,4
|
2006
|
2.368.720.953
|
16.082.511
|
0,68
|
2007
|
2.969.750.541
|
16.661.324
|
0,56
|
2008
|
10.843.211.793
|
30.397.895
|
0,28
|
2009
|
4.284.675.094
|
24.646.129
|
0,58
|
2010
|
4.500.452.552
|
24.306.668
|
0,54
|
2011
|
11.760.486.058
|
17.136.470
|
0,15
|
2012
|
8.415.319.841
|
205.082.730
|
2,44
|
2013
|
11.670.591.808
|
238.119.595
|
2,04
|
2014
|
28.425.230.647
|
29.595.363
|
0,1
|
2015
|
5.633.535.874
|
17.257.439
|
0,31
|
2016
|
7.320.420.032
|
19.817.828
|
0,27
|
2017
|
10.617.620.487
|
30.369.680
|
0,29
|
2018
|
675.970.029
|
115.592.018
|
17,1
|
Total
|
120.358.149.123
|
812.855.129
|
0,68%
|
In 2012 and
in 2013 Dutch dual use exports mainly consisted of
Uraniumhexafluoride (U-235 < 5%, value respectively €80 million
and € 200 million) and products for the aircraft industry (both
years € 25 million). In 2012 also equipment, software and
technology for the protection of information was sold. In 2017 the
most expensive exports were on the same IT-items for protection of
information (€ 114,8 million). This kind of IT-technology is
exported to many countries and according to the Dutch Government
meant for service providers in the private sector and “and
potential human rights violations are carefully considered.” (q&a
35) One may wonder however how civil Chinese security of
communication is.
For the Netherlands the high figures at the start of 2018 may be an exception, but the Czech Republic reports important dual use exports to China in 2015 (largest number) and 2016 (2nd). Even Norway, with its high standards, reports dual use sales to China in its arms sales report for 2016.
For the Netherlands the high figures at the start of 2018 may be an exception, but the Czech Republic reports important dual use exports to China in 2015 (largest number) and 2016 (2nd). Even Norway, with its high standards, reports dual use sales to China in its arms sales report for 2016.
Late
February 2018 UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted arms
control programs are abandoned and military
power glorified, a development the UN wants to counter. Probably
East Asia is the region
for most concern. For Chinese president Xi at the Communist
Party Congres in October it was clear: “technology is the core
combat capability.” And imports are the easy way to expand
capabilities. The viewpoint of Guterres may give direction, but the
road map isn't laid out by those words. It puts eg. a difficult
question on the table: how to limit exports used to strengthen the
Chinese military and repressive infrastructure without creating a
Cold War atmosphere?
According to
Mathieu
Duchatel the European arms export control is created from human
security perspective rather than an ambition to shape the global
strategic balance. A strategic viewpoint on exports of strategic
goods should be shaped by arms control and conflict resolution. Not
by fanning the ambers of fire by selling to all parties which play a
role in the Asian strive for dominance, from the smaller ASEAN
countries to such big players as Japan, Australia and India and
superpowers US and China as is currently happening. To start with
restricting arms and military dual use exports may lead to a more
balanced view. But most of all: the policy should not
be driven by economic interests.
