New Dutch submarines; how about arms export and proliferation?

Walrus-class submarine at Zeebrugge Naval Days, July 1st, 2016.

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The Netherlands is in the midst of a multi billion euro acquisition of new conventional submarines to replace its current class. Recently the acquisition process was scrutinised by a large amount of questions (267) by members of the parliament and answers by the government.

The acquisition has a defence-industrial component and will impact future European arms exports as well as the proliferation of submarine capabilities and technology. Three different wharfs are shortlisted, all linking to a Dutch counterpart: Swedish SAAB Kockums (with Damen); French Naval Group (with Royal IHC); and German Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems ('Submarine Valley' in Den Helder, home port of the Dutch navy).

European exports

“No European country can maintain the competitivity of its defense industry based on just its own domestic market,” said Hervé Guillou, director of the French Naval Group. This also applies to diesel electric submarines production.

During the past 25 years, 178 conventional submarines have been commissioned. Of these China has produced 45, all but two (delivered to Bangladesh) for its own inventories; Russia produced 32, of which 25 were exported to five different countries; and 78 were produced or developed by one or more European Union members. They exported the lion share, 55, to 14 different countries in and outside EU/NATO+. The US is missing, although by far the largest submarine force, because it only produces nuclear – no diesel – submarines. European countries not only export hulls but also engines, sensors and weapon systems. Thirteen of the vessels have for example radar, sonar of electronic warfare capabilities of Thales aboard (see table). The submarine market is a 'buyers market' where margins for profit are small and lucrative offers to tempt clients to buy will be enormous. This week Guillou stated the Dutch ocean going submarine would be a welcome addition to the portfolio of the Naval Group.

According to the Dutch government, one of the reasons to acquire a new submarine is the worldwide proliferation of submarines. Potentially the Dutch will contribute to this problem themselves. However in Parliamentary questions the concern about export is restricted to export of Dutch knowledge to foreign European wharfs (this will be prevented by agreements on the transfer of technology) and to the exports of submarines by China. Some MPs already want to anticipate income from exports to change the picture on costs.

Tasks

The costs of the intended submarine acquisition are still confidential, but the contract is classified in the highest government cost range for acquisitions over € 2.5 billion (it will be probably close to € 3.5 billion for four submarines). The submarines will be tasked with world wide power projection, intelligence gathering (as the current class did e.g. in the Adriatic, Persian Gulf and near the coast of Venezuela), and covert deployment of special forces. They must be able to influence strategic situations and to create defensive and offensive fighting power. The demands on the new class of submarines are broader defined and weaponry and sensors will be improved. They will be also less depended on supplies. The major disadvantage is the reduced radius, due to the fact it has no external fuel tanks, but this is to improve stealthiness.

The role of the submarine is growing in importance because large surface vessel are much more vulnerable, according to naval expert Eric Wertheim. The logic to buy such boats is about power in a world moving towards a Cold War 2.0. Security may be better served with disarmament, arms control and confidence building measures, at least for the arms industry that is not an attractive alternative.

Weaponry

Torpedo's are the only weapon system specifically mentioned so far. It will be most probably the US Mk-48 torpedo. Recently the US State Department approved a Foreign Military Sale to the Netherlands of sixteen of the Mod 7 Advanced Technology (AT) torpedo conversion kits for these and related equipment for an estimated cost of US$ 85 million. The last government letter (B-brief) on the submarine acquisition mentioned a “limited number and a diversity on weapons and special forces storage.” In the questions it is stated this will have an effect on limited capacity for unmanned vessels (underwater drones, or UUVs). To shed some light on what may be expected, lets look to some of the last submarines of the shortlisted wharfs: the French designed Indian Scorpéne class can fire exocet anti-ship missiles, the German 212 class and Swedish Blekinge-class have also a mine laying capacity. Combat Fleets of the World of 2013 mentions a "payload tube capable of employing naval special forces, swimmer delivery vehicles or unmanned systems," (also mentioned on the Swedish wiki on the two boats). Obviously all three have torpedo tubes.

Article 346 and defence industry
Reading the questions of the Dutch MPs the influence of the industry lobby jumps from the pages. Many questions are asked several times in exact the same wording. MPs fear Dutch knowledge will disappear when foreign submarine builders will be chosen to build the boats. As if there is a Dutch submarine builder available or easily created without hurdles and much higher costs. The Dutch government has some problems to make clear – to nationalist Members of Parliament with other presumptions - there is no foreign Dutch combined principle contractor, all design authorities and thus responsible wharfs are foreign, because the Netherlands has no self-creating submarine shipbuilding capacity for 25 years. The Ministry of Defence made clear knowledge will come to the Netherlands instead of leaving it. Nether the less the Dutch naval lobby complained the answering of the questions showed the Dutch government do not care about Dutch naval shipbuilding.

The Netherlands want a off-the-shelve design to be adopted to specific Dutch wishes and including Dutch technology. In the process the Dutch made an appeal to article 346 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and thus did not tender the order to the open market, to 'protect essential security interests'. Access, strengthening, and expansion of submarine related knowledge and craft is essential to the Netherlands, according to the government, and article 346 provides a tool to demand involvement of Dutch industry of the foreign party delivering the submarine. Not only the industry which will be involved but also military research institutions (Marin naval research, TNO and UK's BMT).

Risks 

Dutch parliament members asked for the risks behind the program. The government sees three different kinds of risks: technical (like integration of systems, political (like slow moving decision) and waning social support for the replacement. The Government keeps itself informed on these risks, but details are confidential. Until now the debate is limited to specialist articles in the papers, defence industry, different opinions between Ministries (Defence, Finance and Economics) and lobbyists. One of the social democrat parties, the SP, tries to raise awareness that money spend on submarines cannot be spend on social services. Besides that, this submarine acquisition does not contribute to a Dutch military protecting the country, but to a military strengthening interventionist policies and the danger of submarine exports.

Conventional submarines, globally commissioned since 1995
No.	Name of class	Country	Builder	Produce of
16	Ming *,**	China	Wuhan Shipbuilding Industries	China
1	Qing	China	Wuhan Shipbuilding Industries	China
14	Song (type 39)*	China	Wuhan Shipbuilding Industries	China
12	Yuan (type 41)	China	Wuhan Shipbuilding Industries	China
2 (of 4)	Ming class	Bangladesh	Wuchang Shipyard, Wuhan	China
3	Agosta 90B*	Pakistan	DCN (1) and Karachi NSY (2)	France
2	Scorpène-class*	Malaysia	DCN	France/Spain
4	Kalvari (Scorpène )*	India	Mazagon Dock Limited	France/Spain
2	Scorpène-class*	Chile	DCN/Navantia	France/Spain
1 (of 4)	Scorpène-class*	Brazil	DCN/Brazilian navy	France/Spain
3 (of 4)	Preveze class (Type 209T1/1400)	Turkey	Gölcük Naval Shipyard	Germ,any
4	Gür class (Type 209T2/1400)	Turkey	Gölcük Naval Shipyard	Germ,any
3	Heroine class (Type 209 1400-Mod)*	S. Africa	HDW	Germ,any
2	Tridente-class (Type 214) *	Portugal	HDW	Germ,any
8	Sohn Wonyil class (Type-214)	S. Korea	HDW/Daewoo S&ME/Hyundai HI	Germ,any
7 (of 9)	Chang Bogo class (Type 209)	S. Korea	HDW/Deawoo S&ME	Germ,any
4	Todaro class (type 212)	Italy	HDW/Fincantieri SpA	Germ,any
6	Dolphin 1 and 2 (Type 212)	Israel	Nordseewerke Emden and HDW	Germ,any
3	Nagapasa class	Indonesia	Daewoo S&ME, Korea/PT PAL, Indo	Germ,any
4	Papanikolis (Type 214)*	Greece	HDW/Hellenic SY	Germ,any
10	Type-212	Germany	HDW/Thyssen	Germ,any
2	Type-209/1400mod class		HDW	Germ,any
1 (of 5)	Tupi 209 class 1400 mod*	Brazil	HDW/Brazilian Navy	Germ,any
11	Soryu	Japan	Kawasaki and Mitsuibishi, both Kobe	Japan
11	Oyashio	Japan	Kawasaki and Mitsuibishi, both Kobe	Japan
1	Project S126	Japan	Kawasaki, Kobe	Japan
6	Kilo (Project 636)	China	Admiralty Shipyard, Saint Petersburg	Russia
5	Project 636	Russia	Krasnoye Sormovo/Adm SY/Zvodni	Russia
2	Lada	Russia	Admiralty Shipyard, Saint Petersburg	Russia
1 (of 3)	Younis/Yunes Kilo (project 877EKM)	Iran	Admiralty Shipyard, Saint Petersburg	Russia
2 (of 10)	Sindhughosh Kilo (project 877EKM)	India	Admiralty Shipyard, Saint Petersburg	Russia
2	Kilo (Project 877EKM)	China	Krasnoye	Russia
10	Kilo (Project 636)	China	Admiral SY /Krasnoye/Sevmash	Russia
4	Improved Kilo (project 636)	Algeria	Admiralty Shipyard, Saint Petersburg	Russia
3	Gotland classe	Sweden	Kockums	Sweden
6	Collins *	Australia	Australian Submarine Corp. Kockums	Sweden/Autralia
Sources: Notes:	Eric Wertheim, Combat fleets of the world, 16th edition; wiki pages on submarines, per class and country. * with Thales sonar, electronic warfare (EW), or radar. ** Ming was built between 1975 and 2003. But 12 Ming Type 035G from 1990 to 1999 and 4 035B between 2000 and 2003.

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